Madison, 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

776
FXUS64 KJAN 271128 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
628 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 150 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025

Today through Monday Night...

Hi-res guidance continues to show a 1021mb subtropical high hovering
over the southeast CONUS. This will allow for quiet weather
conditions to persist across a good portion of our forecast area
today with a slight chance of scattered showers mainly for areas
along and north of Hwy 82. Dangerous heat will be the primary focus
for today with warm and humid conditions expected across the
southeast CONUS. This combined with afternoon highs in the mid to
upper 90s and dewpoints in the mid 70s will allow for heat indices
between 105-110 degrees across our entire area. For this reason, no
changes have been made to the heat graphic for today and the
"Elevated" risk for dangerous heat will continue to be advertised
for a good portion of our CWA. Likewise, the heat advisory will
remain in effect from 10 am this morning until 8 pm later this
evening for our entire forecast area.

Weather conditions will remain relatively quiet later this evening
thanks to the subtropical high hovering over the southeast CONUS.
HREF guidance is starting to show low probabilities (around 10%) of
patchy fog development across our area. Confidence is too low to
introduce any fog graphics at this time, however shallow fog will be
possible around dawn. Sky cover will be generally clear as we head
into the overnight period. The clear skies will allow for
radiational cooling to occur which will help nighttime lows drop
into the mid 70s areawide.

Warm and humid conditions will continue across our CWA on Monday.
This combined with daytime highs peaking the upper 90s, and
dewpoints in the mid/upper 70s (with a few areas seeing dewpoints in
the low 80s) will allow for heat indices across our CWA to be in the
110-120 degree range. At the moment, no changes have been made to
the heat graphic for Monday and a "Significant" risk for dangerous
heat will continue to be advertised for most of our forecast area.
Likewise, a heat advisory will likely be needed for our entire CWA
heading into Monday. Given the increased warming trends, an Extreme
Heat Warning may be introduced for portions of the area as well.
Heat trends will continue to be monitored as we get closer to
Monday. Monday night will remain relatively quiet with overnight
lows dipping into the mid/upper 70s. /CR/

Tuesday through Saturday...

Not much has change in the forecast for the extended period.
Significant heat risk will continue to be the primary focus for our
entire CWA as we go through much of next week.

Rain chances will start to increase slightly mainly for areas along
and east of I-55 heading into Tuesday with a few strong storms
possible. Rain coverage will start to rebound with deepening
moisture Wednesday into the late week. Regardless of the rain
chances, dangerous heat will be the main focus for
Tuesday/Wednesday. There is a good chance that an Extreme Heat
Warning may be needed for portions of the area for both Tuesday and
Wednesday with heat index readings between 115-120 degrees.

Global guidance is starting to show a weak frontal boundary
across the Central Plains drifting southward towards the southeast
CONUS later in the week. This combined with easterly moist boundary
layer advection will help increase afternoon/early evening rain
coverage across our area and provide a little bit of relief from the
heat. Rain chances will continue heading into the weekend. /CR/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025

Patchy fog and low clouds this morning will diminish shortly after
sunrise. Isolated SHRA are possible during the daytime, but most
sites will remain dry. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail
through the TAF period. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       96  75  98  77 /  10   0   0  10
Meridian      96  74  97  76 /  10   0  10  10
Vicksburg     96  76  98  78 /  10   0   0  10
Hattiesburg   97  77 100  77 /  10   0  10  10
Natchez       96  74  97  76 /  10   0   0   0
Greenville    95  77  99  78 /  10  10   0  10
Greenwood     95  76  98  78 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074.

LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

CR/DL